DoD Report Says Aguadilla UFO Was Just Sky Lanterns; Previous Scientific Studies Claim Otherwise

The Department of Defense’s All-domain Anomaly Resolution Office (AARO) has released a new assessment of the 2013 Aguadilla, Puerto Rico, unidentified aerial phenomenon (UAP) event, concluding that the objects recorded on infrared video did not demonstrate anomalous flight characteristics and were likely “sky lanterns”.

The incident, recorded by a U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) aircraft on April 26, 2013, has been widely analyzed since the footage was made public.

The thermal video appears to show an object moving at high speed, splitting into two, and entering the ocean before disappearing.

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According to AARO’s March 20, 2025, case resolution report, the video actually depicts two objects traveling near each other rather than a single object splitting apart. The agency stated that a reconstruction of the event using Systems Toolkit (STK) modeling determined that the objects drifted at approximately 8 mph, consistent with wind speed at the time.

“The objects did not exhibit anomalous speeds or other behavior exceeding known state-of-the-art performance characteristics,” the report states.

AARO’s analysis determined that what appeared to be transmedium behavior—meaning the objects seemed to enter and exit the water—was instead a result of the infrared sensor’s limitations. The report explains that “thermal crossover,” a phenomenon in which an object’s heat signature blends with the background, caused the objects to appear to vanish when they reached the ocean.

“The objects did not enter the water. Rather, the sensor could not distinguish the objects from their environment due to a lack of thermal contrast between them and the ocean,” the report notes.

AARO also assessed “with moderate confidence” that the objects were sky lanterns, commonly released by resorts and hotels in the area during celebrations. The report points to the objects’ size, thermal signature variability, and drifting motion as supporting this conclusion.

SCU Report Contradicts Findings
The Scientific Coalition for UAP Studies (SCU), an independent research group, previously conducted an in-depth analysis of the Aguadilla video, reaching a different conclusion. Their study, which examined frame-by-frame infrared data and radar information, suggested that the object displayed speeds exceeding 100 mph and transmedium capabilities. SCU researchers argue that no known aircraft, balloon, or natural phenomenon accounts for the observed behavior.

For further details on SCU’s findings, visit their report here.

Despite their previous findings, SCU stated in November that they contacted AARO for their findings on the Aguadilla case, but were told it was going through the pre-publication process.

Now that it is available, it appears based on the above post SCU is open to evaluating AARO’s findings. Any updates from them will be posted by The Black Vault.

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